GOP Mudfest

Michael BrusPosted Monday, Feb. 14, 2000, at 3:09 AM ET

Issue 1 is Saturday's GOP presidential primary in South Carolina. Issue 2 is the chaos in the Reform Party.

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Last weekend, just days after John McCain's New Hampshire stunner, pundits were duly impressed with the Arizona senator's victory but still called his candidacy a long shot. Bush has the resources to outlast him, the conventional wisdom went, and South Carolina and Michigan are "Bush country." This week--with Forbes no longer in the picture and with McCain's lead over Al Gore greater than Bush's--pundits think that the nomination is close to being a toss-up. Conservative opinion-makers such as Tucker Carlson (CNN's Late Edition), George F. Will (ABC's This Week), and Kate O'Beirne (CNN's Capital Gang) predict that the GOP establishment will begin to defect to McCain if he wins South Carolina--and especially if he wins Michigan. (These states are "tailored to all the presumptions of the Bush campaign," notes Will, and if Dubya can't win there, he can't win anywhere.)

That said, most pundits think that Bush had a good week. (Indeed, he has pulled even with John McCain in South Carolina.) Bush's largest boost came when McCain ran a TV ad comparing Bush to President Clinton. (McCain subsequently withdrew the ad and pledged to permanently forego negative attacks.) Several pundits--like Paul Gigot (PBS's NewsHour With Jim Lehrer), Eleanor Clift (The McLaughlin Group), and Steve Roberts (LE)--think that McCain's comparison underestimates the intelligence of the South Carolina voter. Others--like Gloria Borger (Washington Week in Review) and Kate O'Beirne (CG)--think that it makes a crusading reformer like McCain look like a mudslinger. Mark Shields (NH) says that Bush planned it this way: By attacking McCain soon after the New Hampshire vote, Bush set bait, and McCain bit. In a focus group conducted by TW, voters go gaga over a Bush TV ad denouncing McCain for his negative attacks. Most programs note that in the past week McCain's negative ratings have topped Bush's. Jim Warren (TMG) says that Bush strategists are hoping that Alan Keyes will attack McCain in Tuesday's debate, allowing the Texas governor to remain positive.

Bush, however, comes under fire for visiting the racist Bob Jones University. (The school prohibits interracial dating and calls Catholicism and Mormonism "cults.") Some pundits--such as Paul Gigot and John McLaughlin (TMG)--think that speaking there was a mistake. (McLaughlin accuses Bush of "courting the 'bubba' vote," while Jim Warren notes that Bush's brother Jeb would not have been allowed to date his future wife had he been a student at BJU.) But Tony Blankley (TMG) thinks that Bush couldn't have been expected to know in advance about the university's policies. And both Blankley and Mara Liasson (Fox News Sunday) think that the visit will actually help Bush in South Carolina--though it may haunt him in the general election. On NBC's Meet the Press, Bush protests that his decision to speak there did not imply approval of every university policy.

Most programs treat the recent Reform Party contretemps as so much farce. (On Friday, Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura quit the party, on Saturday a Ross Perot supporter wrested control of the party from a Ventura supporter, and on Monday Donald Trump is expected to announce that he will not run for president.) Only Mark Shields connects the dots: If Ventura and Trump are out, that means Perot and Pat Buchanan are in. This is bad news for the GOP, because Buchanan could siphon crucial votes from a GOP candidate in November. Meanwhile, Pat Robertson tells LE that he will not support McCain if he wins the nomination--a move that would surely help funnel Christian conservative support to Pitchfork Pat.

Miscellany

Both Al Hunt (CG) and George F. Will note that despite Clinton's ambitious spending requests in his new budget, the president will leave office with an oddly conservative legacy: He is the only post-War president besides Eisenhower who actually shrank the size of the federal government. ... On LE, Barbara Bush says that she and ex-President Bush regret having gone to New Hampshire to campaign for their son. (Apparently it was a spontaneous move on their part and not planned by Dubya's campaign.)

Casual Sunday for George F. Will

Pundit Central knew that hell had frozen over when he spied George F. Will on television without a necktie. Wearing a dark gray turtleneck underneath his blazer, the usually prim, bowtied, Oxford don-ish commentator resembled a graduate student trying to get admitted to a discotheque. Presumably Will's change in couture has more to do with the hulking cast on his right hand than with any newfound desire to look mod. And Pundit Central has nothing against subverting the pundit's typical suit-and-tie uniform. But Will's look suggests confusion more than subversion. Accordingly, Pundit Central suggests that Will either a) find a dress shirt with a sleeve large enough for the cast or b) go the full monty by growing out his hair, getting some contact lenses, and maybe sporting a little facial hair.

Last Word

A lot of people think you're a thug.

--Tony Snow to Al Sharpton (FNS)

But look, we're having fun. This is a great ride. I'm Luke Skywalker getting out of the Death Star and we're having a great ride. And it's a lot of fun.

--John McCain (CBS's Face the Nation)

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